Historical Context

From 1523 to 1978, every pope hailed from Italy. This unbroken tradition ended with the election of Pope John Paul II, who was born in Poland, followed by Germany’s Pope Benedict XVI, and finally, Argentina’s Pope Francis. These transitions signaled the Church’s gradual shift towards a more global representation.

Current Italian Contenders

Among the top contenders is Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the current Vatican Secretary of State, praised for his seasoned diplomacy. Also considered are Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, Archbishop of Bologna, and Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem.

Italy has the largest number of cardinal electors—19 in total—but their influence may be diminished due to internal divisions.

Challenges and Considerations

The Italian delegation is not without challenges. A recent scandal involving Cardinal Angelo Becciu, who was convicted of financial crimes, has raised questions about transparency and integrity, even though Parolin himself was not implicated.

Additionally, some cardinals argue that appointing another Italian pope might hinder the Church’s efforts to stay globally inclusive, especially as its influence and growth are increasingly rooted in the Global South—Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Conclusion

As the conclave convenes on May 7, 2025, the world watches to see whether tradition will resurface or the Church will embrace its international path. While Italy presents strong candidates, geopolitical dynamics and ecclesiastical concerns will weigh heavily in the decision.