Ukraine began the day with diplomatic wind in its sails.
It has finally agreed on a mining transaction “framework” with Washington. An agreement under which the United States will invest in Ukraine’s recovery in exchange for a part of the country’s future income from natural resources, energy infrastructure, and oil and gas.
In addition, a first round of peace discussions between American, European, and Ukrainian officials in Paris was welcomed as “positive.” That was until US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened to withdraw from the effort to arrange a cease-fire unless progress was made quickly.
Ukraine had hoped that America’s rising irritation with Russia would lead to additional sanctions against Moscow. Instead, the possibility of the US abandoning continuing peace efforts benefits the Kremlin more than Kyiv.
The agreement is that Ukraine’s and its European partners’ combined weight will be insufficient to counter Russian aggression in the long term. Despite continuing to invade and control as much of Ukraine as possible, Moscow professes to be seeking peace.
It has launched some of the bloodiest missile strikes against civilians in recent days. More than 100 people were hurt and one died in Kharkiv, Ukraine, after three bombs exploded in a residential area.
But these attacks have received little censure from the White House, which has continued to employ more of a stick with Kyiv, by suspending military supplies, and a carrot with Moscow, by boosting relations, to persuade both sides to share its desire for peace.
Kyiv committed to a comprehensive cease-fire after the US suspended military aid and information sharing. Moscow has not backed down from its continuous maximalist demands for greater Ukrainian territory and the removal of President Volodymyr Zelensky. It’s unclear how this threat will result in a breakthrough.
Mykhailo leads his US-made naval patrol ship in the Black Sea’s quiet, unrestricted seas. As we stand on the bridge, I ask him if he feels like he’s fighting for both Europe and his country.
“If Russia occupies all of Ukraine, who knows?” he asks. “In 10 or 15 years’ time, Russia will go to Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, or any of the Baltic countries; that is quite clear.”
US military help to Ukraine is rapidly running out. No new packages will be introduced in Congress or unlocked through presidential drawdown powers.
If Washington abandons these peace efforts, Ukraine will be forced to rely on its European friends to stop Russia’s ongoing assault. The assumption is that the aggregate weight will be insufficient in the long run.
On this length of Ukrainian-controlled coastline, Kyiv has achieved success. Russia’s fleet has been forced back by the launch of Western and domestically produced drones, reopening a crucial maritime corridor.
However, the challenge for defending forces, as President Zelensky recognises, is that battlefield realities are lost on a wider audience.
Despite the US and Ukraine moving closer to a mineral deal, the Trump administration’s threat makes it appear more like a business endeavour.
It also raises new doubts about whether Washington cares who rules Ukraine in the long run, as long as US commercial interests are preserved.
